The Great Smartwatch Slowdown: Why Companies Are Playing The Waiting Game
Ever thought there were fewer compelling reasons to upgrade your smartwatch these days? Many true innovations do not stand out? Well, I'm not making this up.
It's a quiet time in the smartwatch world right now, as big brands await the next set of advanced sensors that will change the way we think about our devices.
Trouble is, the next generation, which will transform smartwatches and wearables from medical devices to full medical platforms, is still several years away.
This topic came up when we spoke to companies like Fitbit and Huawei about clothing trends for 2023-2024.
Not only are we waiting for these sensors to become accurate enough, but the FDA's regulatory black hole is also growing. Since the next generation of display technology isn't prime time ready, that means the next 12-24 months will be quiet.
This all comes amid a bleak economic outlook and forecasts of a slowdown in wearable device shipments as tech companies announce mass layoffs.
The tightening of the belts, in fact, has already begun. Industry leader Apple just reported an 8% decline in sales of its wearables division in the first quarter of 2023.
Bloomberg's ever-reliable Mark Gurman also noted that Apple's smartwatch lineup won't see any major updates in 2023, an assumption that remains true after minor improvements to the Apple Watch Series 8 in 2022.
For now, the clothing brands seem to be waiting for the game.
Ava: 
Next generation sensors
The next big advance in sensor technology will be pulseless blood pressure measurement, followed by features like noninvasive hydration and glucose monitoring.
And now we have a lot of projects in testing and nothing is ready for consumers.
Movano has been open to testing an RF blood pressure sensor, and we spoke at length with Rockley Photonics last year about its promising moisture tracking results. He's also optimistic about being able to monitor blood pressure and glucose levels.
These are the only projects we know of. For all the smaller brands that are making waves, you can guarantee that some of the biggest tech and healthcare companies in the industry are also doing massive testing.
However, even if something passes the FDA, it needs to be incorporated into each brand's ecosystem, and companies like Apple, Fitbit, and Garmin will have their say on how to handle this.
It seems that 2024 could be the first time we will see new integrated sensors.
Brighter and more efficient display
From a design standpoint, display technology appears to be the next big thing.
The utility of Micro-LED technology is undeniable, but it will initially only be available on the biggest and best smartwatches. We have received reports, for example, that the Apple Watch Ultra will receive Micro-LED in 2024.
This will enable thinner form factors, better visuals and more energy efficiency, and could change the way we think about always-on displays.
But again, it will take some time.
While we wait
So what can we expect before a real tsunami of innovation?
We think we're likely to see more brands follow Apple's lead and offer better, smarter features aimed at women after ignoring this area for so long. In fact, Samsung has already done this by offering temperature-based fertility tracking with the Galaxy Watch.
Also interesting is the release of the new Qualcomm Snapdragon W5 chip, which makes us wonder if it is possible to increase the basic battery life of high-end smartwatches.
This, however, will also have a lot to do with how Google Wear OS 4.0 and Apple watchOS 10 can offload activities to the coprocessor.
Fossil VP Brooke Eaton spoke with Wareable about the steps Google can still take to build new features like notifications without reactivating the entire system.
That means we're likely to see a modest increase in battery life, better accuracy of dual-frequency GPS, and the idea of smoother connectivity via satellite and eSIM.
But in terms of features that will drive the smartwatch industry, consider this period the calm before a very big storm.
