Beware Of Pentagon Technoenthusiasm
As Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said at the National Defense Industry Association meeting this week, the Pentagon has the benefit of "a new approach to China's challenges, as outlined in the Replicator Initiative, that will help us address our greatest challenges." of the PRC. , Bulk Shipping...More Ships. More rockets. More people."
Hicks further explains the essence of this new approach: "To stay ahead, we will develop advanced technology, as America has done in the past - using accessible and independent systems in all areas - that is cheaper, brings fewer people to insurance coverage and can be changed, updated or improved with little waiting time." This seems like a better option than building very complex systems that take decades to develop and implement, are extremely difficult to maintain, and in some cases are more expensive than what adversaries can do. Use to counterattack. they are
However, it is important to moderate the effectiveness of many drones when trying to change the way the Pentagon works. unmanned aerial vehicles on land and at sea; And an AI-based decision system that can significantly shorten the "kill chain" from the attack decision until the weapon hits the target. It should also be noted that the effort to transform the US military in a possible conflict with aircraft carriers, manned aircraft and traditional weapons - weapons and traditional weapons will create a bitter political conflict with the Congress regarding the possibility of American jobs. Constituencies and member states have the greatest influence on the size and shape of the Pentagon budget.
Operation Desert Storm, America's response to the 1991 invasion of Iraq's neighbor Kuwait—a ostensibly prime example of “revolutionary” technology in warfare—made exaggerated claims about battlefield accuracy that required detailed analysis to adjust measures. Winslow Wheeler, a longtime Pentagon critic and defense expert, said a post-war analysis by the Government Accountability Office showed that more ammunition was needed to destroy key targets than the Pentagon and weapons manufacturers had initially said. Critical systems such as the F-117 stealth jet, Tomahawk air-to-air missiles and laser-guided bombs have had success rates far lower than claimed, in some cases much lower. For example, a GAO analysis of Tomahawk use during Desert Storm found that only half of the missiles fired in that war hit their targets. The agency later determined that "another one reached the intended location, but the impact was too far from the intended point, so only one well was constructed."
As another example, "DOD and contractor claims that laser-guided munitions can hit a single target and that one bomb delivers an average of 11 tons of guided munitions and 44 tons of guided munitions in an airstrike are unsubstantiated." For each target successfully destroyed.» It was enough to defeat relatively poorly armed opponents, but it wasn't the magical weapon that was originally advertised. At the same time, these capabilities and improvements do not require significant air power, otherwise it would not be enough to win a war against an enemy that does not have an air defense system. War is more than the best bombs and communications. If such an advantage can be developed against China, it will not be critical.
The impetus for the development of a new generation of weapons and control methods was the success of drones in the war in Ukraine. But it's too early to fully assess the system's performance or its relevance to a potential conflict with China — a war between nuclear powers, with or without drones, is an unprecedented risk for all sides.
All this suggests, Hicks said in his NDIA speech, that there is no point in rushing into the new technological revolution without proper evaluation and testing. Above all, plans to win a war with China must prioritize political and diplomatic initiatives to create laws that reduce friction between Washington and Beijing.
Love of technology is not a strategy. And without the right political and diplomatic context, China's growing capabilities, such as drones that can destroy thousands of targets in a short period of time, will accelerate a dangerous arms race rather than prevent a dangerous conflict.
William D. Hartung is a senior fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Government.
